🔗 Share this article

While dawn illuminated the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, negotiators remained stuck in a airless conference room, uncertain whether it was day or night. For more than 12 hours in difficult discussions, with dozens ministers representing 17 groups of countries from the least developed nations to the richest economies.

Frustration mounted, the air heavy as weary delegates acknowledged the sobering reality: there would not be a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The international climate negotiations teetered on the brink of abject failure.

The major obstacle: Fossil fuels

Research has demonstrated for nearly a century, the carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil fuels is warming our planet to alarming levels.

Nevertheless, during more than three decades of yearly climate meetings, the crucial requirement to halt fossil fuel use has been mentioned only once – in a agreement made two years ago at previous UN climate talks to "transition away from fossil fuels". Representatives from the Gulf states, Russia, and multiple other countries were determined this would not happen again.

Increasing pressure for change

At the same time, a growing number of countries were equally determined that movement on this issue was vitally needed. They had formulated a plan that was gathering expanding support and made it apparent they were willing to stand their ground.

Developing countries urgently needed to advance on securing financial assistance to help them manage the already disastrous impacts of environmental crises.

Critical moment

In the pre-dawn period of Saturday, some delegates were willing to withdraw and trigger failure. "We were close for us," commented one energy minister. "I was prepared to walk away."

The breakthrough came through discussions with Saudi Arabia. Shortly after 6am, key negotiators split from the main group to hold a closed-door meeting with the chief Saudi negotiator. They urged language that would subtly reference the global commitment to "transition away from fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Surprising consensus

Instead of explicitly mentioning fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the previous commitment". After consideration, the Saudi delegation unforeseeably agreed to the wording.

Participants expressed relief. Applause rang out. The deal was finalized.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took an incremental move towards the gradual elimination of fossil fuels – a hesitant, inadequate step that will minimally impact the climate's continued progression towards crisis. But nevertheless a notable change from total inaction.

Major components of the agreement

• Alongside the subtle acknowledgment in the legally agreed text, countries will begin work a roadmap to systematically reduce fossil fuels
• This will be largely a non-binding program led by Brazil that will report back next year
• Addressing the essential decreases in greenhouse gas emissions to stay within the 1.5C limit was also put off to next year
• Developing countries achieved a threefold increase to $120bn of yearly funding to help them cope with the impacts of environmental crises
• This funding will not be completely provided until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "fair adjustment program" to help people working in polluting businesses move toward the sustainable sector

Differing opinions

While our planet teeters on the brink of climate "tipping points" that could devastate environments and force whole regions into crisis, the agreement was not the "major breakthrough" needed.

"Cop30 gave us some baby steps in the correct path, but given the severity of the climate crisis, it has failed to rise to the occasion," warned one policy director.

This limited deal might have been the maximum achievable, given the geopolitical headwinds – including a Washington administration who shunned the talks and remains aligned with oil and coal, the growing influence of conservative movements, continuing wars in different locations, extreme measures of inequality, and global economic instability.

"Major polluters – the oil and gas companies – were at last in the focus at Cop30," says one policy convener. "This represents progress on that. The platform is available. Now we must transform it into a real fire escape to a more secure planet."

Major disagreements revealed

While nations were able to welcome the official adoption of the deal, Cop30 also highlighted deep fissures in the only global process for addressing the climate crisis.

"UN negotiations are consensus-based, and in a period of global disagreements, agreement is increasingly difficult to reach," observed one international diplomat. "We should not suggest that this summit has achieved complete success that is needed. The difference between present circumstances and what research requires remains dangerously wide."

When the world is to prevent the most severe impacts of climate crisis, the international negotiations alone will fall far short.